Economists at financial firm Morgan Stanley expressed concern about the end of the trade war, but warned in June 2019 that this could lead to a recession.  On August 14, 2019, the Dow fell 800 points, in part due to rising trade tensions between the United States and China.  Nine days later, on August 23, the Dow fell 623 points on the day Trump informally ordered U.S. companies to immediately seek alternatives to do business in China.   At the end of 2019, stock markets reached record levels after increasing due to the agreement between the United States and China on the signing of the first phase of a trade agreement.   Current and former U.S. government officials and trade experts from both countries say that the Phase 1 agreement, signed in January after nearly two years of customs and furious rhetoric, is the only area in which the world`s two largest economies are still working together. A November 2019 Financial Times article reported that the trade war since August 2019 had hit U.S. producers harder than the Chinese producer.   [it needs to be updated] Since the 1980s, Trump has advocated tariffs to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and encourage domestic production, and said the country was “ripped off” by its trading partners; The imposition of tariffs has become an important part of his presidential campaign.
 A context of the Council of Foreign Relations stated that while many economists and trade experts did not believe that trade deficits were hurting the economy, others felt that persistent trade deficits were often a problem and that there was a substantial debate about the size of the foreign government trade deficit and the policies to be adopted to reduce it.  Almost all economists who responded to the Associated Press and Reuters polls said that Trump`s tariffs would do more harm than good to the U.S. economy, and some economists have argued for alternative ways for the United States to deal with its trade deficit with China.   T92   Assessing progress towards the Phase 1 targets for merchandise trade requires information from both U.S. export and Chinese import statistics, given that Chapter 6, Article 6.2.6, of the agreement states that “official Chinese trade data and official U.S. trade data are used to determine whether this chapter has been implemented.” One consequence is that there are two sets of monthly data to follow (Chinese imports and U.S. exports).